Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Infamouswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Infamous
Miranasignature
Michael · 7 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 6 games
Marssignature
Mariano · 6 games
Bane
Prada · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Prada · 5 games
Snapfire
Pamplona · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Tusk
Pamplona · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 263 bans
Mars
398 picks · 545 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 607 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 359 bans
Weaver
307 picks · 393 bans
Ember Spirit
281 picks · 393 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 453 bans
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 546 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 48%
Hero pool strength60% Infamous
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total65% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:35
beastcoast 65%Infamous 35%
The model gave 65% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infamous in 41:48.
Game 2prediction missed16:42
beastcoast 65%Infamous 35%
The model gave 65% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infamous in 30:46.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 65%
Series resultInfamous 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2