Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hokoriwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
443 picks · 263 bans
Mars
398 picks · 543 bans
Death Prophet
314 picks · 606 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 356 bans
Weaver
307 picks · 395 bans
Ember Spirit
281 picks · 389 bans
Queen of Pain
277 picks · 451 bans
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:32
Balrogs 30%Hokori 70%
The model gave 70% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 40:20.
Game 2prediction correct9:36
Balrogs 30%Hokori 70%
The model gave 70% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 31:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 70%
Series resultHokori 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2