Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionKCKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKIwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NMNo Monkey Businessloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Sand Kingoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
Treant Protector
smN · 4 games
Bane
smN · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
Rikioften banned
Hellscream · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Corrupted · 2 games
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 2 games
Techies
Hellscream · 2 games
No Monkey Business
Razoroften banned
xannii · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
xannii · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 6 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
MieRo · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
illusion · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
441 picks · 264 bans
Mars
394 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
311 picks · 603 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 352 bans
Weaver
308 picks · 398 bans
Ember Spirit
278 picks · 390 bans
Queen of Pain
277 picks · 454 bans
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:15
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 54%No Monkey Business 46%
The model gave 54% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
LinaEgor
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Marsxannii
Dark WillowHellscream
Ioillusion
BanesmN
Game 2prediction correct47:34
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 55%No Monkey Business 45%
The model gave 55% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 51:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerMunkushi~
Ember SpiritEgor
AxeCorrupted
Marsxannii
TechiesHellscream
Skywrath Mageillusion
BanesmN
Model check result
Model favoriteKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI · 58%
Series resultKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2