Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phoenix Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Phoenix Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Shining · 8 games
Bane
Lwwnb · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lwwnb · 4 games
Dark Willow
Helios · 4 games
Hoodwink
Helios · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
zone- · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
440 picks · 268 bans
Mars
396 picks · 542 bans
Weaver
312 picks · 400 bans
Death Prophet
311 picks · 600 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 350 bans
Queen of Pain
281 picks · 453 bans
Ember Spirit
277 picks · 390 bans
Kunkka
265 picks · 480 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength61% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:4
Invictus Gaming 77%Phoenix Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 24:07.
Game 2prediction missed39:15
Invictus Gaming 77%Phoenix Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 51:20.
Game 3prediction missed13:25
Invictus Gaming 77%Phoenix Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 38:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 77%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3