Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportswin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Omega Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Omega Gaming
Marssignature
Lissex · 9 games
Dawnbreakersignature
CHAAANNN · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
Demon · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
Demon · 7 games
Dazzle
CHAAANNN · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Demon · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Mingatte · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Mingatte · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
439 picks · 270 bans
Mars
397 picks · 545 bans
Death Prophet
314 picks · 599 bans
Weaver
313 picks · 406 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 348 bans
Queen of Pain
283 picks · 454 bans
Ember Spirit
279 picks · 391 bans
Kunkka
266 picks · 481 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Omega Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:9
SG e-sports 47%Omega Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 33:30.
Game 2prediction correct38:42
SG e-sports 47%Omega Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 46:31.
Game 3prediction correct32:45
SG e-sports 47%Omega Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 47:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 53%
Series resultSG e-sports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3