Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
YNT
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 7 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 7 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
jesv · 6 games
Bane
dSa · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dominic · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
441 picks · 271 bans
Mars
394 picks · 543 bans
Weaver
315 picks · 409 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 593 bans
Tiny
304 picks · 345 bans
Queen of Pain
286 picks · 455 bans
Ember Spirit
275 picks · 388 bans
Kunkka
267 picks · 480 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 32%
Hero pool strength51% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:37
Lilgun 74%YNT 26%
The model gave 74% on Lilgun — the game was taken by YNT in 31:06.
Game 2prediction missed27:15
Lilgun 74%YNT 26%
The model gave 74% on Lilgun — the game was taken by YNT in 27:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 74%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2