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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
RSGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fly · 10 games
80%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 8 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Q · 8 games
88%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hyde · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Hyde · 7 games
86%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Q · 7 games
86%

RSG

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
442 picks · 271 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 545 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
319 picks · 407 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
315 picks · 588 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
303 picks · 342 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
290 picks · 456 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 387 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
268 picks · 482 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 80%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:36
Talon Esports 65%RSG 35%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by RSG in 44:12.
Game 2prediction correct22:14
Talon Esports 65%RSG 35%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:37.
Game 3prediction missed26:39
Talon Esports 65%RSG 35%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by RSG in 35:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 65%
Series resultRSG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3