?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Apes Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Bombi · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 7 games
43%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
29%
Bane
Bane
Febby · 6 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 6 games
0%

Team Apes Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Lym- · 5 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dalul · 5 games
20%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jikroy · 4 games
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Jikroy · 4 games
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
dalul · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
MamangDaya · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 2 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lym- · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
444 picks · 274 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 546 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
319 picks · 407 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
317 picks · 588 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
303 picks · 339 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
290 picks · 457 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 388 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
268 picks · 482 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:20
TNC Predator 61%Team Apes Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 48:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYoungGodLevi
53% · 161 game49% · 174 games
Queen of PainMamangDaya
Queen of Pain
Lina
LinaYowe
55% · 223 games48% · 146 games
LeshracJikroy
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierBok
50% · 143 games49% · 35 games
Chaos Knightdalul
Chaos Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightFebby
51% · 81 game45% · 253 games
HoodwinkLym-
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed14:32
TNC Predator 62%Team Apes Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Team Apes Esports in 45:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingYoungGodLevi
54% · 118 games43% · 60 games
MorphlingJikroy
Morphling
Enigma
EnigmaBok
49% · 24 games53% · 122 games
KunkkaMamangDaya
Kunkka
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYowe
53% · 142 games44% · 38 games
Chaos Knightdalul
Chaos Knight
Pugna
PugnaFebby
50% · 33 games49% · 97 games
HoodwinkLym-
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed22:30
TNC Predator 64%Team Apes Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Team Apes Esports in 49:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYoungGodLevi
54% · 102 games49% · 170 games
MorphlingJikroy
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierYowe
52% · 142 games53% · 47 games
Chaos Knightdalul
Chaos Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBok
51% · 148 games53% · 65 games
WindrangerMamangDaya
Windranger
Io
IoFebby
49% · 134 games42% · 244 games
GrimstrokeLym-
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 68%
Series resultTeam Apes Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3