Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
444 picks · 274 bans
Mars
397 picks · 547 bans
Weaver
319 picks · 408 bans
Death Prophet
317 picks · 586 bans
Tiny
301 picks · 339 bans
Queen of Pain
292 picks · 456 bans
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 386 bans
Kunkka
268 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total91% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:7
Quincy Crew 91%simply TOOBASED 9%
The model gave 91% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 22:22.
Game 2prediction missed16:38
Quincy Crew 91%simply TOOBASED 9%
The model gave 91% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 28:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 91%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2