Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Goonsquadwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Into The Breach
Snapfiresignature
Era · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Xibbe · 9 games
Banesignature
Peksu · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Era · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Bor@nija · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Bor@nija · 6 games
Tidehuntersignature
Xibbe · 6 games
Void Spiritsignature
Bor@nija · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 272 bans
Mars
398 picks · 548 bans
Weaver
321 picks · 408 bans
Death Prophet
317 picks · 585 bans
Tiny
301 picks · 337 bans
Queen of Pain
291 picks · 458 bans
Ember Spirit
274 picks · 384 bans
Kunkka
268 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)85% vs 29%
Hero pool strength56% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:35
Goonsquad 80%Into The Breach 20%
The model gave 80% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 38:22.
Game 2prediction missed34:38
Goonsquad 80%Into The Breach 20%
The model gave 80% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 56:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 80%
Series resultGoonsquad 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2