Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Bristlebacksignature
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
Snapfire
Giant · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Marssignature
dnm · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Techies
bgod · 6 games
Bane
Overlom · 5 games
Wildcard Gaming
Marssignature
Sunlight · 8 games
Lunasignature
DaaD- · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
iAnnihilate · 6 games
Hoodwink
The Warden · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Ark · 5 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 5 games
Rubick
The Warden · 5 games
Linaoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 270 bans
Mars
398 picks · 547 bans
Weaver
321 picks · 408 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 584 bans
Tiny
301 picks · 337 bans
Queen of Pain
291 picks · 458 bans
Ember Spirit
274 picks · 384 bans
Kunkka
268 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:40
The Cut 42%Wildcard Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 38:04.
Game 2prediction correct9:31
The Cut 42%Wildcard Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 26:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 58%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2