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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Novawin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nova

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
so bad · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
paradise' · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
foryou · 3 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
swedenstrong · 3 games
33%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
paradise' · 3 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
so bad · 2 games
100%

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 31 game
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 26 games
46%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 20 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 19 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Ainkrad · 18 games
61%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
445 picks · 268 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 545 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
320 picks · 408 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
314 picks · 584 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
301 picks · 336 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
291 picks · 458 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 384 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
268 picks · 484 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:18
Nova 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nova in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerparadise'
45% · 58 games48% · 32 games
Troll WarlordKiritych
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritforyou
52% · 151 game51% · 147 games
Pangoliernicky`cool
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBb3px
45% · 128 games57% · 120 games
Death ProphetTheChosenOne
Death Prophet
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
50% · 59 games48% · 54 games
Chaos KnightHeaven
Chaos Knight
53% · 43 games
OracleVANSKOR
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed25:9
Nova 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nova in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracforyou
57% · 169 games49% · 164 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Weaver
Weaverparadise'
53% · 164 games49% · 181 game
MedusaKiritych
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBb3px
48% · 205 games42% · 86 games
ViperTheChosenOne
Viper
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
48% · 254 games53% · 168 games
MiranaHeaven
Mirana
51% · 193 games
Death ProphetVANSKOR
Death Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 68%
Series resultNova 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2