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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 25 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 22 games
73%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 22 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
47%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 17 games
76%

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Thiolicor · 35 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 29 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 23 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 21 game
52%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 920 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
482 picks · 522 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 424 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
442 picks · 296 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1068 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 578 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 583 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 674 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:30
Team Spirit 65%Heroic 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYatoro
39% · 135 games52% · 89 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLarl
53% · 423 games52% · 252 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
51% · 308 games45% · 205 games
KunkkaWisper
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
49% · 262 games56% · 546 games
JakiroThiolicor
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanrue
52% · 389 games50% · 425 games
WarlockKJ
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct30:21
Team Spirit 66%Heroic 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterYatoro
53% · 406 games50% · 261 game
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Invoker
InvokerLarl
54% · 154 games48% · 111 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Mars
MarsCollapse
50% · 405 games45% · 217 games
KunkkaWisper
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
51% · 242 games47% · 522 games
TuskThiolicor
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanrue
52% · 364 games51% · 460 games
WarlockKJ
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct28:28
Team Spirit 62%Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYatoro
37% · 57 games53% · 295 games
WindrangerYuma
Windranger
Puck
PuckLarl
52% · 407 games47% · 231 game
Primal BeastTaiLung
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierCollapse
48% · 305 games52% · 256 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Jakiro
Jakirorue
50% · 645 games53% · 392 games
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
Shadow Shaman
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
50% · 151 game54% · 391 game
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3