Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 3 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 3 games
Dragon Knight
emptiness · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 2 games
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
Watson · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 30 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 27 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 23 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 19 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 266 bans
Mars
396 picks · 546 bans
Weaver
323 picks · 409 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 580 bans
Tiny
299 picks · 335 bans
Queen of Pain
291 picks · 460 bans
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 380 bans
Kunkka
268 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:33
Rune Eaters 37%Hydra 63%
The model gave 63% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyTA2000
Templar AssassinKami
Death ProphethAze
PangolierAskold
Dragon KnightCloud
Sand KingBlizzy
Skywrath MageArrOw
EnchantressZayac
44% · 186 games
HoodwinkMuka
Game 2prediction correct21:34
Rune Eaters 37%Hydra 63%
The model gave 63% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 28:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinTA2000
Chaos KnightKami
Queen of PainhAze
PangolierAskold
Dragon KnightCloud
MarsBlizzy
HoodwinkArrOw
Skywrath MageMuka
54% · 117 games
EnchantressZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 73%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2