Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Sorrywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
No Sorry
Hoodwink
y0nd · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
Dinozavrik · 11 games
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 10 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 6 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
LastHero- · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
443 picks · 264 bans
Mars
395 picks · 545 bans
Weaver
325 picks · 409 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 577 bans
Tiny
298 picks · 334 bans
Queen of Pain
290 picks · 462 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 377 bans
Kunkka
268 picks · 489 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:18
Lilgun 69%No Sorry 31%
The model gave 69% on Lilgun — the game was taken by No Sorry in 40:10.
Game 2prediction missed41:30
Lilgun 69%No Sorry 31%
The model gave 69% on Lilgun — the game was taken by No Sorry in 52:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 69%
Series resultNo Sorry 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2