Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Banesignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 14 games
Earthshaker
AhFu · 12 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 10 games
Linasignature
Moon · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
444 picks · 264 bans
Mars
396 picks · 548 bans
Weaver
328 picks · 408 bans
Death Prophet
314 picks · 577 bans
Tiny
300 picks · 333 bans
Queen of Pain
295 picks · 462 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 379 bans
Kunkka
269 picks · 493 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total76% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:32
Fnatic 76%Team SMG 24%
The model gave 76% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team SMG in 41:19.
Game 2prediction missed13:26
Fnatic 76%Team SMG 24%
The model gave 76% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team SMG in 27:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 76%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2