PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 43 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 26 games
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 24 games
Snapfire
tOfu · 24 games
PARIVISION
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 23 games
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 16 games
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 16 games
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Void Spirit
No[o]ne · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
597 picks · 921 bans
Tusk
481 picks · 424 bans
Tiny
480 picks · 521 bans
Warlock
441 picks · 297 bans
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 1064 bans
Mars
398 picks · 575 bans
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 582 bans
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 674 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total72% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:17
Team Liquid 64%PARIVISION 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 55:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangermiCKe
MuertaSatanic
Ember SpiritNisha
TidehunterNo[o]ne
LargoAce
BatriderSSS
JakirotOfu
BaneDukalis
LionBoxi
Earth Spirit9Class
Game 2prediction correct34:20
Team Liquid 62%PARIVISION 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LargoAce
TinkerNo[o]ne
Void SpiritNisha
Faceless VoidSatanic
WindrangermiCKe
BatriderSSS
JakirotOfu
ChenDukalis
TuskBoxi
Tiny9Class
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 72%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2