Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionNMNo Monkey Businessloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CHILLAXwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Monkey Business
Razoroften banned
xannii · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 6 games
Kunkkasignature
xannii · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 5 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
illusion · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
xannii · 5 games
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
443 picks · 268 bans
Mars
393 picks · 543 bans
Weaver
328 picks · 417 bans
Death Prophet
311 picks · 564 bans
Queen of Pain
299 picks · 464 bans
Tiny
296 picks · 322 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 374 bans
Kunkka
268 picks · 494 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:20
No Monkey Business 35%CHILLAX 65%
The model gave 65% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 21:25.
Game 2prediction correct11:44
No Monkey Business 35%CHILLAX 65%
The model gave 65% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 37:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 65%
Series resultCHILLAX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2