?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 10 games
90%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 9 games
44%
Luna
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
75%
Bane
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 7 games
86%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
miCKe · 7 games
71%

Nigma Galaxy

Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
20%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
443 picks · 268 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 543 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
328 picks · 418 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
311 picks · 562 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
300 picks · 464 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
295 picks · 322 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 372 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
268 picks · 496 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 35%
Hero pool strength60% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total61% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:20
Team Liquid 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosMATUMBAMAN
60% · 55 games46% · 305 games
TinyMiracle-
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritmiCKe
53% · 142 games48% · 245 games
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
Tidehunter
Sand King
Sand Kingzai
47% · 171 game47% · 108 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
57% · 155 games45% · 75 games
UndyingKuroKy
Undying
Bane
BaneiNSaNiA
53% · 210 games
Game 2prediction correct32:14
Team Liquid 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMATUMBAMAN
55% · 211 games52% · 158 games
MedusaMiracle-
Medusa
Necrophos
Necrophoszai
55% · 38 games46% · 195 games
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangoliermiCKe
45% · 210 games53% · 202 games
MiranaGH
Mirana
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
53% · 100 games53% · 225 games
BaneKuroKy
Bane
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
40% · 221 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 61%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2