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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empirewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.

Team Empire

Bane
Bane
Kaori · 24 games
42%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 23 games
26%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
46%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 13 games
46%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 12 games
17%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Shisui · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
444 picks · 268 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 541 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
329 picks · 419 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
311 picks · 560 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
301 picks · 464 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
294 picks · 322 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 371 bans
50%
Kunkka
Kunkka
268 picks · 494 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:35
Lilgun 57%Team Empire 43%
The model gave 57% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Team Empire in 27:50.
Game 2prediction missed
Lilgun 57%Team Empire 43%
The model gave 57% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Team Empire.
Game 3prediction missed37:25
Lilgun 57%Team Empire 43%
The model gave 57% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Team Empire in 36:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 57%
Series resultTeam Empire 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3