PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Tusksignature
Malady · 35 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 32 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
Axesignature
Noticed · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 30 games
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
594 picks · 923 bans
Tusk
481 picks · 424 bans
Tiny
478 picks · 519 bans
Warlock
439 picks · 298 bans
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1062 bans
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 581 bans
Mars
395 picks · 574 bans
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 672 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total73% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:6
Team Yandex 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
RazorLorenof
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
AbaddonSkiter
BatriderDM
MarsATF
TinySaksa
MuertaCr1t-
JakiroMalady
Shadow ShamanSneyking
Game 2prediction missed25:11
Team Yandex 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
SvenSkiter
SlardarChira JUNIOR
PuckLorenof
Dark SeerDM
MarsATF
TinySaksa
Shadow DemonCr1t-
JakiroMalady
PhoenixSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 73%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2