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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Apes Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lilgunwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Apes Esports

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Jikroy · 4 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dalul · 4 games
25%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Lym- · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
MamangDaya · 2 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lym- · 2 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dalul · 2 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jikroy · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 2 games
0%

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
449 picks · 270 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 543 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
334 picks · 432 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
317 picks · 551 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
309 picks · 472 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
290 picks · 312 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 369 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
272 picks · 500 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:39
Team Apes Esports 22%Lilgun 78%
The model gave 78% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 27:17.
Game 2prediction missed39:22
Team Apes Esports 22%Lilgun 78%
The model gave 78% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Team Apes Esports in 43:00.
Game 3prediction correct38:37
Team Apes Esports 22%Lilgun 78%
The model gave 78% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 47:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 78%
Series resultLilgun 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3