Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
RSGwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
UD Vessuwan
Snapfire
Poloson · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 11 games
Lionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
Miranasignature
Jhocam · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 9 games
Dragon Knight
Rupido · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
449 picks · 270 bans
Mars
395 picks · 543 bans
Weaver
334 picks · 430 bans
Death Prophet
318 picks · 550 bans
Queen of Pain
310 picks · 473 bans
Tiny
290 picks · 310 bans
Kunkka
273 picks · 500 bans
Ember Spirit
271 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% UD Vessuwan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% RSG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:19
RSG 70%UD Vessuwan 30%
The model gave 70% on RSG — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 29:45.
Game 2prediction missed8:24
RSG 70%UD Vessuwan 30%
The model gave 70% on RSG — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 24:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteRSG · 70%
Series resultRSG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2