Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stratyk Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 8 games
Axesignature
Zore · 7 games
Templar Assassinsignature
solji · 6 games
Bane
Steelborco · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 4 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Stratyk Gaming
Templar Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
451 picks · 269 bans
Mars
395 picks · 543 bans
Weaver
333 picks · 428 bans
Death Prophet
320 picks · 548 bans
Queen of Pain
312 picks · 475 bans
Tiny
285 picks · 310 bans
Kunkka
274 picks · 502 bans
Ember Spirit
271 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Stratyk Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
Felt 51%Stratyk Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 34:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinysolji
RazorAdrx
Storm SpiritYellow Flash
Sand KingZore
RubickAfrOmoush
Game 2prediction missed8:38
Felt 53%Stratyk Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Felt — the game was taken by Stratyk Gaming in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinysolji
Chaos KnightAdrx
Storm SpiritYellow Flash
AxeZore
Winter WyvernAfrOmoush
Game 3prediction correct54:22
Felt 50%Stratyk Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 34:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarYellow Flash
LifestealerAdrx
Ember Spiritsolji
PangolierZore
TinyAfrOmoush
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 50%
Series resultFelt 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3