Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Happy Sealswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
452 picks · 269 bans
Mars
394 picks · 542 bans
Weaver
333 picks · 429 bans
Death Prophet
320 picks · 546 bans
Queen of Pain
314 picks · 476 bans
Tiny
285 picks · 308 bans
Kunkka
272 picks · 502 bans
Ember Spirit
271 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength50% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Happy Seals
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:21
5ManMidas 32%Happy Seals 68%
The model gave 68% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 33:41.
Game 2prediction correct46:13
5ManMidas 32%Happy Seals 68%
The model gave 68% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 26:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteHappy Seals · 68%
Series resultHappy Seals 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2