Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 30 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 27 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 20 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 19 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
450 picks · 270 bans
Mars
395 picks · 540 bans
Weaver
334 picks · 432 bans
Death Prophet
317 picks · 545 bans
Queen of Pain
313 picks · 478 bans
Tiny
282 picks · 305 bans
Kunkka
273 picks · 500 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:37
CHILLAX 40%Hydra 60%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:04.
Game 2prediction correct32:7
CHILLAX 40%Hydra 60%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 23:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 60%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2