Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
simply TOOBASEDloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Bristlebacksignature
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
Snapfire
Giant · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Marssignature
dnm · 7 games
Techies
bgod · 6 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Bane
Overlom · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
455 picks · 271 bans
Mars
403 picks · 541 bans
Weaver
339 picks · 438 bans
Queen of Pain
319 picks · 486 bans
Death Prophet
317 picks · 552 bans
Tiny
281 picks · 305 bans
Kunkka
274 picks · 509 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% The Cut
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:20
The Cut 70%simply TOOBASED 30%
The model gave 70% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 57:44.
Game 2prediction missed33:20
The Cut 70%simply TOOBASED 30%
The model gave 70% on The Cut — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 46:26.
Game 3prediction correct31:11
The Cut 70%simply TOOBASED 30%
The model gave 70% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 33:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 70%
Series resultThe Cut 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3