Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quincy Crewloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Bane
Wij · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
Ogre Magi
Wij · 4 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Hyko · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Arms · 3 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
458 picks · 271 bans
Mars
406 picks · 540 bans
Weaver
340 picks · 440 bans
Queen of Pain
320 picks · 487 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 552 bans
Tiny
280 picks · 305 bans
Kunkka
275 picks · 510 bans
Ember Spirit
271 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:4
Evil Geniuses 54%Quincy Crew 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 29:21.
Game 2prediction missed9:28
Evil Geniuses 54%Quincy Crew 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 26:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 54%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2