Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
Banesignature
KuroKy · 8 games
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
Gyrocopter
iLTW · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
458 picks · 272 bans
Mars
407 picks · 542 bans
Weaver
340 picks · 443 bans
Queen of Pain
324 picks · 488 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 552 bans
Tiny
280 picks · 303 bans
Kunkka
277 picks · 509 bans
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 72%
Hero pool strength53% Entity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:38
Nigma Galaxy 20%Entity 80%
The model gave 80% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 42:20.
Game 2prediction correct22:38
Nigma Galaxy 20%Entity 80%
The model gave 80% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 51:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 80%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2