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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Omega Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 16 games
38%
Bane
Banesignature
Accel · 13 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 13 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Accel · 10 games
30%
Io
Iosignature
KJ · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sl4d1n- · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 10 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
RdO · 9 games
44%

Omega Gaming

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
CHAAANNN · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Lissex · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Demon · 6 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Demon · 6 games
33%
Dazzle
Dazzle
CHAAANNN · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Demon · 4 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mingatte · 4 games
25%
Mirana
Mirana
Demon · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
458 picks · 272 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 541 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
340 picks · 443 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
324 picks · 486 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
312 picks · 550 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
279 picks · 301 bans
50%
Kunkka
Kunkka
276 picks · 508 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 373 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:8
NoPing VPN 51%Omega Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 26:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRdO
44% · 101 game53% · 176 games
Templar AssassinMingatte
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerSooths
45% · 162 games50% · 127 games
Storm SpiritJeimari
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkElmisho
45% · 173 games57% · 159 games
Sand KingLissex
Sand King
Io
IoDuster
49% · 119 games57% · 93 games
Keeper of the LightDemon
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed22:46
NoPing VPN 52%Omega Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 37:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsSooths
50% · 362 games49% · 136 games
MedusaMingatte
Medusa
Ursa
UrsaRdO
51% · 101 game46% · 185 games
Void SpiritJeimari
Void Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkElmisho
52% · 137 games51% · 137 games
Dragon KnightLissex
Dragon Knight
Lich
LichDuster
50% · 22 games51% · 164 games
HoodwinkDemon
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed23:45
NoPing VPN 50%Omega Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaRdO
52% · 183 games53% · 197 games
TinyMingatte
Tiny
Kunkka
KunkkaSooths
53% · 241 game50% · 178 games
Storm SpiritJeimari
Storm Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDuster
50% · 219 games50% · 396 games
MarsLissex
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkElmisho
45% · 195 games47% · 67 games
Skywrath MageDemon
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 54%
Series resultOmega Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3