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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UD Vessuwanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fly · 10 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 8 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hyde · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Q · 7 games
86%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Hyde · 7 games
86%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Q · 7 games
86%

UD Vessuwan

Snapfire
Snapfire
Poloson · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 11 games
45%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jhocam · 9 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 9 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Meracle · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
462 picks · 272 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 532 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
339 picks · 441 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
324 picks · 488 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
312 picks · 542 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
277 picks · 505 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
274 picks · 295 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 370 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Talon Esports 69%UD Vessuwan 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa23savage
51% · 159 games55% · 225 games
TerrorbladeKen
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
45% · 151 game48% · 219 games
Queen of PainJG
Queen of Pain
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkpii
52% · 46 games56% · 201 game
Dragon KnightRupido
Dragon Knight
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeQ
48% · 176 games53% · 65 games
Skywrath MageTeehee
Skywrath Mage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHyde
40% · 178 games
Game 2prediction missed18:27
Talon Esports 69%UD Vessuwan 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 40:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tiny23savage
51% · 225 games57% · 282 games
Templar AssassinKen
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorMikoto
51% · 183 games49% · 266 games
KunkkaJG
Kunkka
Mars
Marskpii
45% · 375 games48% · 152 games
Dragon KnightRupido
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickHyde
47% · 195 games50% · 304 games
WeaverTeehee
Weaver
Omniknight
OmniknightQ
56% · 26 games
Game 3prediction correct31:22
Talon Esports 69%UD Vessuwan 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
49% · 214 games55% · 125 games
TinyKen
Tiny
Razor
Razor23savage
48% · 149 games57% · 183 games
KunkkaJG
Kunkka
Doom
Doomkpii
42% · 92 games52% · 89 games
Sand KingRupido
Sand King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanHyde
44% · 68 games49% · 169 games
Death ProphetTeehee
Death Prophet
Brewmaster
BrewmasterQ
53% · 43 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 80%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3