Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lavawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
464 picks · 275 bans
Mars
403 picks · 534 bans
Weaver
341 picks · 444 bans
Queen of Pain
324 picks · 490 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 539 bans
Kunkka
279 picks · 506 bans
Tiny
271 picks · 293 bans
Ember Spirit
268 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:33
Balrogs 30%Lava 70%
The model gave 70% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 52:43.
Game 2prediction correct28:34
Balrogs 30%Lava 70%
The model gave 70% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 45:12.
Game 3prediction correct26:24
Balrogs 30%Lava 70%
The model gave 70% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 40:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 70%
Series resultLava 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3