Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 18 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 15 games
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 12 games
Doomoften banned
Enryu · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 11 games
Weaversignature
NARMAN · 11 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
468 picks · 279 bans
Mars
403 picks · 542 bans
Weaver
347 picks · 456 bans
Queen of Pain
342 picks · 495 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 532 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 518 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 370 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 192 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 32%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total78% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:36
T1 78%Neon Esports 22%
The model gave 78% on T1 — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 47:42.
Game 2prediction missed33:10
T1 78%Neon Esports 22%
The model gave 78% on T1 — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 33:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 78%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2