Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs predictionTATeam Apes Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Apes Esports
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Jikroy · 4 games
Grimstroke
Lym- · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
dalul · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
dalul · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Jikroy · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Dragon Knight
MamangDaya · 1 game
Talon Esports
Banesignature
Fly · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 8 games
Dark Willow
Hyde · 7 games
Marssignature
kpii · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Hyde · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Q · 6 games
Ogre Magi
Fly · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
468 picks · 281 bans
Mars
404 picks · 541 bans
Weaver
347 picks · 456 bans
Queen of Pain
343 picks · 494 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 530 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 516 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 369 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 192 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 73%
Hero pool strength65% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:22
Team Apes Esports 28%Talon Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMamangDaya
Medusa23savage
JuggernautJikroy
Queen of PainMikoto
Sand Kingdalul
Brewmasterkpii
MiranaLym-
GrimstrokeHyde
48% · 155 games
AbaddonQ
Game 2prediction correct16:40
Team Apes Esports 27%Talon Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracJikroy
LinaMikoto
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
Razor23savage
Chaos Knightdalul
Marskpii
Keeper of the LightLym-
WeaverQ
60% · 30 games
Shadow ShamanHyde
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 85%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2