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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.

Army Geniuses

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 10 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lym- · 8 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 8 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Varizh · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
470 picks · 281 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 541 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
347 picks · 456 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
344 picks · 496 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
315 picks · 530 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
282 picks · 516 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 370 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 193 bans
43%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Lilgun
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total69% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 69%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed