Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomersloss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TSMwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 16 games
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 9 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
471 picks · 280 bans
Mars
406 picks · 544 bans
Weaver
347 picks · 456 bans
Queen of Pain
345 picks · 497 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 527 bans
Kunkka
283 picks · 517 bans
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 368 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 193 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 65%
Hero pool strength61% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:16
4 Zoomers 32%TSM 68%
The model gave 68% on TSM — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 47:37.
Game 2prediction correct11:27
4 Zoomers 32%TSM 68%
The model gave 68% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 34:13.
Game 3prediction correct12:28
4 Zoomers 32%TSM 68%
The model gave 68% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 30:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 68%
Series resultTSM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3