Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CHILLAXloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
472 picks · 280 bans
Mars
406 picks · 545 bans
Queen of Pain
350 picks · 499 bans
Weaver
348 picks · 460 bans
Death Prophet
314 picks · 525 bans
Kunkka
284 picks · 516 bans
Ember Spirit
275 picks · 367 bans
Grimstroke
268 picks · 192 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:19
Alliance 37%CHILLAX 63%
The model gave 63% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Alliance in 50:01.
Game 2prediction missed45:36
Alliance 37%CHILLAX 63%
The model gave 63% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Alliance in 45:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 63%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2