Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 17 games
Snapfire
Taiga · 17 games
Bane
Misha · 12 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 10 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Misha · 10 games
Clinkz
SumaiL · 9 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 18 games
Banesignature
tOfu · 17 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
Weaversignature
tOfu · 16 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 11 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 11 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
473 picks · 279 bans
Mars
403 picks · 547 bans
Queen of Pain
354 picks · 500 bans
Weaver
352 picks · 458 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 522 bans
Kunkka
284 picks · 519 bans
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 365 bans
Grimstroke
268 picks · 191 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:9
OG 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by OG in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerYuragi
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
UnderlordATF
Ember SpiritBOOM
Dragon Knightbzm
MarsAce
HoodwinkTaiga
TechiestOfu
LichMisha
IoSeleri
Game 2prediction missed35:10
OG 40%Gaimin Gladiators 60%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by OG in 26:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinbzm
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
KunkkaYuragi
Storm SpiritBOOM
Dragon KnightATF
PangolierAce
HoodwinkTaiga
Vengeful SpirittOfu
LichMisha
IoSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 65%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2