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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 16 games
25%
Bane
Bane
RR · 13 games
38%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 9 games
22%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 8 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RR · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 7 games
57%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 14 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 9 games
78%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
cml · 9 games
78%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 8 games
75%
Bane
Banesignature
cml · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
475 picks · 279 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 549 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
356 picks · 502 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
352 picks · 462 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
316 picks · 517 bans
55%
Kunkka
Kunkka
289 picks · 519 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 364 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
267 picks · 191 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 57%
Hero pool strength65% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total76% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:19
Execration 34%Polaris Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPalos
49% · 48 games43% · 92 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
47% · 153 games56% · 30 games
NecrophosMac
Necrophos
Sand King
Sand KingTino-
57% · 173 games47% · 283 games
MarsForce
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightShanks
45% · 88 games50% · 48 games
Shadow ShamanBoomy
Shadow Shaman
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRR
53% · 113 games56% · 122 games
Iocml
Io
Game 2prediction correct13:40
Execration 33%Polaris Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 37:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
46% · 246 games50% · 62 games
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Nature's Prophet
Razor
RazorPalos
55% · 213 games47% · 226 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusTino-
59% · 129 games48% · 367 games
MarsForce
Mars
Io
IoShanks
54% · 248 games47% · 310 games
SnapfireBoomy
Snapfire
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRR
47% · 160 games48% · 31 game
Omniknightcml
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct13:23
Execration 36%Polaris Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 28:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPalos
59% · 317 games51% · 257 games
LinaMac
Lina
Leshrac
LeshracBob
50% · 250 games51% · 238 games
TinyNatsumi
Tiny
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderTino-
42% · 157 games48% · 427 games
MarsForce
Mars
Io
IoShanks
53% · 268 games47% · 310 games
Grimstrokecml
Grimstroke
Bane
BaneRR
55% · 394 games44% · 154 games
Dark WillowBoomy
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 76%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3