Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RSGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
Grimstroke
Febby · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 7 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Bane
Febby · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
476 picks · 280 bans
Mars
405 picks · 547 bans
Queen of Pain
357 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
352 picks · 464 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 517 bans
Kunkka
289 picks · 520 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 363 bans
Grimstroke
268 picks · 189 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 75%
Hero pool strength54% RSG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% RSG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:30
TNC Predator 42%RSG 58%
The model gave 58% on RSG — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 44:25.
Game 2prediction missed54:36
TNC Predator 42%RSG 58%
The model gave 58% on RSG — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 54:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteRSG · 58%
Series resultRSG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2