Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KBU.USwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
476 picks · 282 bans
Mars
405 picks · 546 bans
Queen of Pain
357 picks · 502 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 464 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 517 bans
Kunkka
290 picks · 520 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 362 bans
Grimstroke
267 picks · 189 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:33
Arkosh Gaming 51%KBU.US 49%
The model gave 51% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by KBU.US in 30:53.
Game 2prediction missed11:53
Arkosh Gaming 51%KBU.US 49%
The model gave 51% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by KBU.US in 26:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 51%
Series resultKBU.US 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2