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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
66%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 29 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 26 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
62%

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 22 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
591 picks · 923 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 421 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 516 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 292 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1050 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 579 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 566 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 669 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head9 – 5
Model total53% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:25
Team Falcons 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorLorenof
46% · 129 games50% · 379 games
BeastmasterYatoro
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsATF
48% · 356 games51% · 301 game
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
51% · 283 games53% · 449 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
49% · 258 games48% · 235 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
51% · 680 games53% · 342 games
Shadow Shamanrue
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct34:38
Team Falcons 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 50:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSkiter
46% · 135 games51% · 165 games
TimbersawCollapse
Timbersaw
Razor
RazorLorenof
46% · 159 games50% · 281 game
BeastmasterYatoro
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsATF
52% · 468 games53% · 313 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Warlock
WarlockSneyking
51% · 605 games52% · 232 games
Shadow Shamanrue
Shadow Shaman
Lion
LionCr1t-
51% · 127 games48% · 503 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed21:45
Team Falcons 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
52% · 459 games66% · 71 game
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
43% · 651 game49% · 443 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Razor
RazorATF
46% · 170 games45% · 395 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
54% · 268 games53% · 324 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
48% · 269 games45% · 584 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 53%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3