Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
Miranasignature
Boxi · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 9 games
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Boxi · 7 games
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
miCKe · 6 games
Iooften banned
Boxi · 6 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
478 picks · 279 bans
Mars
397 picks · 548 bans
Queen of Pain
362 picks · 507 bans
Weaver
358 picks · 472 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 510 bans
Kunkka
289 picks · 522 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 361 bans
Grimstroke
271 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 74%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:33
Team Liquid 25%Entity 75%
The model gave 75% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 58:09.
Game 2prediction missed50:20
Team Liquid 25%Entity 75%
The model gave 75% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:05.
Game 3prediction missed45:21
Team Liquid 25%Entity 75%
The model gave 75% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 58:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 75%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3