Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidaswin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Eternity
Bane
Jubei · 10 games
Disruptor
Jubei · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 6 games
Lunaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Dark Willow
Cys · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Lion
Cys · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
475 picks · 281 bans
Mars
397 picks · 549 bans
Queen of Pain
365 picks · 506 bans
Weaver
358 picks · 476 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 506 bans
Kunkka
288 picks · 526 bans
Ember Spirit
271 picks · 359 bans
Grimstroke
269 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 30%
Hero pool strength57% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:47
5ManMidas 42%Eternity 58%
The model gave 58% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 1:00:07.
Game 2prediction correct25:42
5ManMidas 42%Eternity 58%
The model gave 58% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 45:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 58%
Series result5ManMidas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2