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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 13 games
31%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 11 games
27%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 9 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Lowskill · 7 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Qupe · 7 games
43%
Razor
Razoroften banned
TheBloodySky · 7 games
43%

Winter Bear

Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Flash · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Exotic Deer · 6 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Ekki · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 4 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Ekki · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Exotic Deer · 4 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Exotic Deer · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
475 picks · 281 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 550 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
366 picks · 508 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
358 picks · 477 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
311 picks · 504 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
289 picks · 527 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 358 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
269 picks · 189 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:24
IVY 40%Winter Bear 60%
The model gave 60% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by IVY in 49:12.
Game 2prediction missed32:7
IVY 40%Winter Bear 60%
The model gave 60% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by IVY in 31:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 60%
Series resultIVY 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2