Rune Eaters vs cybercats — prediction WDCLS 2 9 · Dota 2

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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3

result vs prediction

Rune Eaterswin 2:1

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 2:1

cybercatsloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

No games played over 6 months.

cybercats

Grimstroke

Fezor · 5 games

60%

Faceless Voidoften banned

Shigetsu · 4 games

75%

Jakiro

Fezor · 4 games

25%

Rubick

Fezor · 4 games

50%

Sand Kingoften banned

USHUSHUSH · 4 games

75%

Linaoften banned

Fezor · 3 games

33%

Pugnaoften banned

USHUSHUSH · 3 games

33%

Storm Spiritoften banned

USHUSHUSH · 3 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

474 picks · 280 bans

56%

Mars

394 picks · 549 bans

56%

Queen of Pain

366 picks · 508 bans

53%

Weaver

358 picks · 477 bans

53%

Death Prophet

310 picks · 503 bans

54%

Kunkka

289 picks · 526 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

272 picks · 357 bans

51%

Grimstroke

269 picks · 189 bans

45%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% cybercats

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% Rune Eaters

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct10:29

Rune Eaters 49%cybercats 51%

The model gave 51% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 29:35.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo