PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Snapfire
Tims · 29 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 26 games
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 25 games
Marssignature
Force · 23 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 19 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
Axeoften banned
Force · 17 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Hoodwink
Save- · 42 games
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 38 games
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 30 games
Muerta
Save- · 25 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 24 games
Disruptor
Kataomi · 23 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 23 games
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
589 picks · 921 bans
Tusk
481 picks · 421 bans
Tiny
475 picks · 513 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 289 bans
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1050 bans
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 579 bans
Mars
388 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 666 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total51% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:32
OG 50%BETBOOM TEAM 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonNatsumi
Templar AssassinKiritych
BrewmasterForce
Queen of PaingpK~
Primal BeastYopaj
MarsMieRo
Shadow DemonTims
LionSave-
MiranaSkem
JakiroKataomi
Game 2prediction correct28:30
OG 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 57:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezNatsumi
Shadow FiendKiritych
Monkey KingYopaj
Ember SpiritgpK~
Dark SeerForce
SlardarMieRo
HoodwinkTims
RingmasterSave-
JakiroSkem
TuskKataomi
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 51%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2