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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UD Vessuwanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lion
boombell · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 9 games
33%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
44%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Q · 7 games
29%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
0%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 6 games
17%
Mirana
Mirana
Q · 5 games
40%

UD Vessuwan

Snapfire
Snapfire
Poloson · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 10 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jhocam · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 8 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 7 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
474 picks · 280 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 549 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 512 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
360 picks · 476 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
310 picks · 499 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
290 picks · 523 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 353 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 191 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% UD Vessuwan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:8
Motivate.Trust Gaming 54%UD Vessuwan 46%
The model gave 54% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritFearless
49% · 188 games50% · 107 games
TinyKen
Tiny
Bane
Baneboombell
55% · 224 games51% · 132 games
Monkey KingJG
Monkey King
44% · 128 games
PangolierRupido
Pangolier
48% · 45 games
Ancient ApparitionTeehee
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct23:20
Motivate.Trust Gaming 50%UD Vessuwan 50%
The model gave 50% on UD Vessuwan — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 39:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFearless
48% · 77 games54% · 52 games
TinyKen
Tiny
Undying
Undyingboombell
47% · 79 games51% · 51 game
Ember SpiritJG
Ember Spirit
45% · 30 games
Dragon KnightRupido
Dragon Knight
61% · 23 games
Skywrath MageTeehee
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct25:13
Motivate.Trust Gaming 51%UD Vessuwan 49%
The model gave 51% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 39:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingFearless
45% · 138 games53% · 127 games
TinyKen
Tiny
Bane
Baneboombell
51% · 185 games48% · 105 games
Storm SpiritJG
Storm Spirit
52% · 63 games
TuskRupido
Tusk
56% · 28 games
Ancient ApparitionTeehee
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 54%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3