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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 47 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 42 games
64%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 37 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 32 games
81%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 31 game
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 28 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 28 games
71%

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Thiolicor · 34 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 29 games
45%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 21 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 21 game
76%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 20 games
65%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 20 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
588 picks · 919 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 420 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 511 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
432 picks · 288 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
411 picks · 1049 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 576 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 563 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 666 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total65% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:46
Aurora Gaming 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Heroic in 51:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonV-Tune
51% · 226 games50% · 205 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Puck
PuckMikoto
52% · 344 games56% · 146 games
Primal BeastTaiLung
Primal Beast
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
42% · 68 games53% · 151 game
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
50% · 164 games44% · 114 games
Skywrath MageThiolicor
Skywrath Mage
Lion
LionMira
47% · 63 games51% · 249 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct30:22
Aurora Gaming 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendV-Tune
48% · 169 games52% · 87 games
WeaverYuma
Weaver
Sniper
SniperMikoto
39% · 66 games55% · 89 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWs
51% · 103 games51% · 53 games
PudgeWisper
Pudge
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
38% · 169 games56% · 407 games
JakiroThiolicor
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
51% · 213 games57% · 84 games
Treant ProtectorKJ
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed16:26
Aurora Gaming 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Heroic in 49:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendV-Tune
49% · 147 games67% · 12 games
MeepoYuma
Meepo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikoto
54% · 156 games52% · 114 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Mars
MarsWs
47% · 213 games53% · 169 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Warlock
WarlockKaori
49% · 230 games45% · 166 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Lion
LionMira
46% · 56 games52% · 341 game
Shadow DemonThiolicor
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 65%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3