Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Happy Sealsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 8 games
Axesignature
Zore · 7 games
Templar Assassinsignature
solji · 6 games
Bane
Steelborco · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
solji · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
476 picks · 279 bans
Mars
397 picks · 543 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 512 bans
Weaver
360 picks · 479 bans
Death Prophet
312 picks · 494 bans
Kunkka
291 picks · 521 bans
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 351 bans
Grimstroke
270 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% Happy Seals
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Happy Seals
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:26
Felt 32%Happy Seals 68%
The model gave 68% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Felt in 39:15.
Game 2prediction missed33:18
Felt 32%Happy Seals 68%
The model gave 68% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Felt in 27:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteHappy Seals · 68%
Series resultFelt 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2